It’s nice to see these type of headlines this time of year about the guy you’re going to go to battle with as a keeper in your dynasty league at the Quarterback spot.
Andre Snellings writes that Watson is going to be the number one guy for him.
Was Watson lucky or unusually hot? Perhaps a bit, if you get into the details. Watson had a passing touchdown rate of 9.3 percent, while Wentz led qualified passers at 7.5 percent. Watson averaged one touchdown pass every 6.6 completions, while the league average was 14.8. The Texans owned the third-lowest drop percentage during the first half of the season, while in the second half they were 10th. And Watson demonstrated an almost preternatural connection with Will Fuller V, connecting with him on five long touchdowns in a three-week span.
However, and this is important, Watson’s success level in these types of big plays wasn’t that unusual overall, as he completed 41.4 percent of “deep” passes (15-plus air yards) while the league average was 41.3 percent. Plus, the Texans ranked 25th in percentage of plays that were designed passes in the first half of the season, and if they increase that volume this season, it could counter or possibly offset any concerns that his efficiency might regress.
Watson’s knee injury was serious, full stop. However, since Watson has experienced a torn ACL and recovery previously while in college, and he returned even better than before, in this case there is reason for measured optimism. Seven months after the surgery, Watson is already going full speed without a knee brace in minicamp. Considering that a good chunk of returning from injury is psychological, Watson’s history should help him have the confidence he’ll need to come back at full speed.
I have my doubts about him being in the top five, but I think he’s top ten. For me to have him as a last round selection, I should get a good chance to beef up the rest of my roster while most of my 12-team league needs to worry about a QB. Plus, it’s exciting as hell to own Watson. It’s like owning Mike Trout at this point. The sky is the limit.